How Mortgage Brokers Can Win in a Volatile Market (When Everyone Else Is Struggling)
Phil Mancuso pulls no punches in this discussion that is equal parts market reality check and sales masterclass.
If you’re waiting for rates to drop, the market to “come back,” or the next refi boom to save your business…
You are lost in space.
That’s just the truth, and most people in the mortgage industry don’t want to hear it. But it’s exactly what separates the professionals who are thriving right now from the ones who are falling off.
Because in today’s “new economy”, marked by rising uncertainty, AI disruption, inflation pressure, and constant noise, there is one principle that matters more than anything else:
You don’t win because of the market. You win because of your execution.
This week, I sat down with “El Pres”, Phil Mancuso of EPM, where we did a special Losers Lunch reunion show, where we lifted the veil of ignorance on the mortgage industry.
The Biggest Headfakes in Mortgage Right Now
Let’s not B.S. each other:
Most originators are obsessed with things they cannot control.
Rates. Builder incentives. Inflation. The Fed. Geopolitics. AI. Credit costs. Market timing.
And while all of those things matter at a macro level…
None of them will close loans.
This is where most people are losing the game.
They spend hours consuming content, analyzing predictions, and waiting for “the right time,” instead of doing the one thing that has always worked:
Talking to more people.
The “Wartime General” Mindset
In today’s environment, average thinking doesn’t survive.
You need to operate like a wartime general.
That means:
No wasted motion
No emotional decision-making
No dependency on market conditions
No excuses
Because here’s the reality:
The market rewards discipline in hard times and exposes weakness instantly.
Some professionals were successful during the boom years in spite of themselves.
Loose processes. Poor follow-up. Bad financial discipline. Weak sales skills.
The market covered it up, and now we see who was swimming naked (Warren Buffett).
Why So Many Mortgage Companies Failed (And Will Continue To)
Let’s do the reverse pinch here and zoom out.
Some major players in the mortgage industry have collapsed in recent years.
That doesn’t happen in most industries. Coca-Cola, Nike, and Walmart just don’t collapse due to a bad year.
So, why does this seem to happen in our industry?
Because many never built a real business.
They were:
Riding refi waves
Outrunning expenses
Not operating profitably
Ignoring execution discipline
And when the environment shifted…
There was nothing underneath to support them.
Execution Is the Only Advantage You Control
There’s a simple truth that should guide everything you do:
The market sets the price. You make money on execution.
Execution means:
Making your calls daily
Following up relentlessly
Moving deals forward quickly
Setting expectations clearly
Eliminating indecision
Though unspectacular in nature, the simple truth that most gloss over:
Execution works in every market.
Good market? You win faster
Bad market? You survive and gain market share
The Hidden Killer: Indecision
If there’s one thing that is a “destroyer of deals” right now, it’s this:
Indecision costs more than the wrong decision.
Especially when it comes to rate strategy.
We’ve all seen it:
Rates dip → people hesitate
Rates spike → regret sets in
Deals fall apart → pipeline shrinks
Meanwhile, effective producers operate differently.
They understand:
You don’t have perfect information
You never will
You act based on probability, not certainty
Lock vs Float: Stop Playing the Guessing Game
Here’s the reality:
Trying to perfectly time the market is a losing strategy.
Instead, professionals focus on:
Probability-based decisions
Clear communication with borrowers
Strong expectations upfront
And most importantly:
They create urgency and action. They do not hesitate.
Because hesitation kills momentum, and the “big mo” is everything in sales.
Sales Mastery: Why Psychology Beats Pricing
Let’s be “really real” for a quick sec, shall we?
Most originators believe they’re losing deals because of pricing, when the data shows the opposite.
They’re losing because:
They sound uncertain
They follow instead of lead
They overwhelm instead of guide
They react instead of control
Effective producers do the opposite.
They:
Lead the conversation
Set the tone immediately
Frame decisions around outcomes
Speak with clarity and conviction
This Simple Sales Shift Makes All The Difference
Stop saying:
“How can I help you?”
Effective producers reposition instantly.
They bring market awareness + authority into the conversation.
They guide the borrower.
They control the narrative.
They make the process feel structured and predictable.
And that does one powerful thing:
It builds trust instantly.
Information = Power (If You Actually Use It)
Here’s where most people go wrong again.
They either:
Ignore the market completely
Or obsess over it endlessly
The winning approach is in the middle:
Be informed but do not get distracted.
Use tools like:
Economic calendars
Market summaries
Weekly outlooks
Not to predict, but to:
Understand trends
Guide conversations
Build credibility
The AI Shift: Adapt or Get Left Behind
AI is here in force, my friends, so this is something you need to pay attention to.
And it will:
Increase productivity
Reduce inefficiencies
Replace average performers
But here’s YOUR opportunity:
The people who learn to leverage AI will outperform the field, and fast.
Just like early adopters of digital tools in the past…
This is another multiplier.
The Real Opportunity (That Most People Miss)
Every disruptive market creates two groups:
Those who retreat
Those who lean in
And history is very clear:
The biggest gains are made during the hardest markets. Period, end of story.
Because:
Competition shrinks
Standards drop
Opportunities increase
If you’re willing to:
Stay disciplined
Execute daily
Ignore distractions
Improve your skills
You will dominate the space while everyone else tries to survive.
The Truth Of This Market
Let’s end this simply.
There is no shortcut.
There is no perfect timing.
There is no magic strategy.
No one is coming to prop up your business and save you.
There is only:
Work
Discipline
Execution
Leadership
And a definite purpose to achieve the outcomes you set out to achieve.
And right now?
This is a market that rewards relentlessness and exposes everyone else.
The Wrap: Stop Waiting. Start Executing.
My friends, if you take one thing from this article, I hope it is this:
Stop waiting for the market to change and start changing how you operate.
The true operators aren’t smarter, luckier, or better positioned. They are simply just more consistent, more decisive, and more disciplined.
Most importantly…
They’re willing to do the work that others aren’t.
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